Controlling Risk On A Highly Volatile Day



CONTROLLING RISK ON A HIGHLY VOLATILE DAY



If counter-trend traders inadvertently find themselves in a trend day, they can make a graceful exit by using the consolidation patterns as an exit. Let’s assume a trader sells the market at the .618 retracement level and initiates a 3-point stop, only realizing that a trend day is in progress once in the trade. At this point, to control the risk and protect capital, the trader wants to utilize one or more of these trade management techniques:
  • Ensure a stop-loss order is in place to prevent a small loss from turning into a large loss.
  • Use the small pullbacks to exit if possible.
  • Put the stop-loss order just above or below the last small swing high or low.

Again, at the .618 level, and let’s assume the trader is short from the 1383.75 level with a three-point stop and the initial objective was another .618 retracement down. The trader would have an opportunity to exit at least part of position as the small AB = CD pattern forms and to pull the stop down to breakeven. This would allow a small profit even in a countertrend trade. If the trader either does not exit or enters the trade at the second test up of the .618 and then realizes he is caught in a trend, he can either:
 
  1. Exit the trade immediately and reverse.
  2. Use the next small pullback to exit, realizing it may be very shallow.
  3. Pull the stop down to the last small high.

Again, in either case a stop-loss order must be in the market to control losses. When traders see prices consolidating on top of Fibonacci levels in an uptrend or  below in a downtrend, they must realize that the probability is in favor of the price continuing in the direction of the trend.

A trader using good trade management techniques would give back very little profit. The market also gaps down lower on the next open. It is wise to listen to what the market is telling us.
 

If you are not familiar with trend days, take some time to observe and learn the characteristics and to become adept at trading them. We suggest keeping a file of charts of trends and making observational notes of the repetitive characteristics. Once you are comfortable with trend days, you can formulate a trading plan for them that utilizes proper money management, entry strategies, and stop-loss placement and profit objectives.
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Trading As A Business





Trading is a business and should be approached as such. There are costs associated with learning to trade and with actual trading. An individual should carefully look at this before venturing into trading. Taking a business approach and doing some planning in this area will help you evaluate the associated costs. We take a look in this section at some of the costs that are associated with trading. We also look at extending the trading plan to incorporate an annual business plan for those traders who are ready to move into that area.


Trading Education

 

 







Although there are exceptions, learning to trade at a level of profitability to make a living will require a solid trading education and time. It can require a considerable amount of money to explore many types of trading methodologies before traders find one that suits their personality that they evolve into their own unique trading style.
It would make sense for traders to formulate a plan around how they want to approach their education in learning to trade. There are many ways to explore learning different methods of trading, including:
  • Live workshops and seminars.
  • Trade shows.
  • Books, magazines, and newspapers.
  • Web sites.
  • Live trading rooms.
  • Mentoring and tutoring programs.
  • Newsletters

It is likely that over the course of a learning curve a beginning trader will explore several of these categories in combination. The trader should investigate each and evaluate the cost and possibly plan a budget around this. For instance, the trader may decide to set aside $3,000 to $5,000 the first year to use for expenses associated with a trading education. It could be allocated to attending a live workshop or seminar, joining a live trading room, studying books, and taking out magazine subscriptions. Each year the education costs can be reevaluated based on where the trader is in the learning curve and what education is needed at that point.

If the trader chooses to attend live trading events, there will most likely be travel costs associated with those events that should also be taken into consideration. One such trading event is the Dukascopy forex event.

We are often asked, “How long will it take to learn to trade successfully?” This is not a question that can be answered with any specific time frame. There are many variables to be considered, such as:
  1. The amount of time the trader can commit to learning, studying, and practicing trading.
  2. How well the trader can outline and follow a trading plan.
  3. How much previous experience the trader may have; this can either contribute to or take away from the learning curve if there are bad habits that need to be broken and relearned.

Experience is one thing that cannot be taught. All elements and components of a proven solid trading methodology can be taught, but experience must be gained by the individual trader. Traders who have time to experience markets and trading on a regular basis will absorb more experience than a trader who has limited time. Additional planning a trader could do is develop a time line to a goal and then plan the steps necessary to reach that goal.

A word of caution here: Each step in the trading education is important and has a purpose and a place. Do not overlook the challenges and rewards of taking each step. We have not yet come across any “fast road to profits” system in trading; success will require hard work, perseverance, and commitment on the trader’s part.


Software, Computer, and Office Costs


Traders must decide what charting program(s) to use that will best suit their needs. There are many available, and attending trade shows can be an excellent way to view them and evaluate their performance. This is another area of expense that any trader must incur and plan for. Along with a charting program, the trader must also evaluate computer equipment and make sure to use an appropriate computer system with the
software. This can also add to the initial costs associated with trading. Here is a list of items to evaluate and plan for as an expense of setting up a trading business:
  • Computer equipment.
  • Monitors; multiple monitors may be necessary.
  • Software program/programs.
  • Data providers for charting packages.
  • Brokerage/commission costs.
  • Internet access.
  • Telephone equipment.
  • Copy machine.
  • Fax machine.
  • Office supplies.

Traders new to trading should investigate what it will cost them to run their business on a monthly and annual basis. This will help them gauge realistically how much they must clear each month/year to make a living in the trading business.


Annual Business Plan
 

 







The end of each year is a time to prepare for the coming year with the trading plan and a business plan. The trading plan can be reviewed from the previous year and adjustments made for the coming year. The business plan will encompass the basic trading plan. Maybe there were some markets that were not successful, and traders
may  reevaluate  their  approaches  to  those  markets  by  looking  at  the internal data they collected throughout the year in their trading statistics. An evaluation of the specific trade management of specific patterns may reveal approaches that can be adjusted. It is a time to take stock and prepare for the next year’s trading. The trader can evaluate any changes to the basic approach and specific trade management issues. Here are some things to evaluate and plan for on an annual basis:
  • Which markets will be traded in the coming year.
  • A trading plan for each market.
  • Time frames traded.
  • A plan for incrementally adding on shares or contracts.
  • Specific trading issues to study and improve or focus on (e.g., learning a new strategy, improving money management, trader psychology)
  • An outline of how the trader will stay on track and focused throughout the year. This could encompass lifestyle changes or scheduled reviews of the trading plan to evaluate whether the trader is staying on track.
  • A mission statement for the coming year.
  • A review of trading expenses for the past year and a forecast for the coming year.
  • Creation of goals and a plan on how to achieve those goals.

This process of trading does not have to be complicated or overwhelming and should be suited to the trader’s experience level. Involving yourself in this area of trading will sharpen the focus and create a well-thought-out road map of where and how to reach your goals as a trader. Traders are continually in a state of uncertainty when involved in and trading real-time markets. Even on occasions when the trader is very off the track and not trading according to plan, the trading plan is a tool to get back to developing good trading habits. Having a well-defined plan is a way for traders to have some grounding and, in a sense, some security, in that they can always refocus on the basics and move on from there.

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Forex Scams


Forex Account Managers

Don't have time to learn how to trade forex? Want to be part of the Billionaire's Club?
If you answered "yes" to these two questions, the Account Manager scam is the fraud for you!
You can call our hotline at 1-800-4XFRAUDS!
This scam operates by having an investor "invest" with a "professional" trader, who trades the investor's capital for a percentage of the profits.
This can sound appealing, especially to beginners who have no idea what they are doing or don't have the time to learn.
They figure, "Well, he's a 'professional' - he must know what he's doing! It's 100 times better than if I traded by myself!"
The problem with this is that the user is placing complete trust of his/her money into the hands of a complete stranger.
In a way, it's like taking candy from a baby.
In many cases of managed accounts, the manager actually appropriates funds towards unrelated luxury items such as cars, islands, and castles.
When finally caught, the manager is not able to pay back the whole amount of stolen capital resulting in unhappy clients and multi-million dollar lawsuits.
Yes, we know it seems extreme but, more often than not, it happens and people can lose their entire investment.
Not ALL account managers are bad though. Some do have many years of trading experience and are well-qualified in trading real money, but that's more the exception than the norm.
Some trading platforms even offer an option to let traders act as managers using the account structure of the broker.
This prevents an individual from taking funds to spend on New York Knicks tickets, trips to the Bahamas, or a Porsche Cayenne.

While this is a safer option compared to letting an independent manager trade your money, you still lose out on the priceless knowledge and experience gained through studying forex trading.
If there is one thing we want to stress to traders, it is education. There is simply no replacement for experience gained through personal studying and trading. In the end, the only surefire way to be profitable in the forex market is to be knowledgeable, practice, and stay disciplined.
We'll leave you with just one question.
Would you trust your hard-earned money with a complete stranger?
 Don't Be a Sucker!
"Buy my 'End of the Rainbow' system and you'll be able to make at least 100,000,000%!!!"
It's like finding the end of a real rainbow but easier!! Guaranteed profit worth a hundred pots of gold with absolutely no risk!
You've probably heard or seen something similar on TV ads, online pop-ups, or even from your next-door neighbor.
I know what you're thinking... This is too good to be true! I mean I do believe in leprechauns and I do feel lucky when I eat my Lucky Charms cereal but I don't know about this system.
Nine and a half times out of ten....
IT'S A SCAM!!!
One of the first things you must learn about the forex market is that although it is enjoyable and exciting, there is no magic button that will instantly turn your pennies into millions of dollars.
You may have already heard about forex scams that are littering the forex world.
They're everywhere! Dishonest people are constantly trying to swindle people like every single day.
With the relatively new availability of the forex market, people aren't as familiar with currencies are as they are with stocks and bonds.
This makes it easier for conniving companies and scheming individuals to mislead people into thinking that making money trading forex is as easy as clicking a button with their "End of the Rainbow" system.
There is good news and bad news. Bad news first.
Scams DO exist. They are real and they sucker people who think they can't be misled. If caught in a scam, you can and may lose all the money that you "invested."
However, there is very good news!
Through this lesson, we will teach you about the different types of scams out there, how to prepare yourself, and what you can do in case you encounter a scam.
We will also describe the regulatory agencies that have jurisdiction in scam cases.
Remember, not all forex companies are bad. Just do your research and you'll be fine.

Automated Robots and Systems

These scams encompass Expert Advisors (also famously known as EAs) and other automated systems.

What is a robot?

In the forex world, a "robot" is a program that strictly uses technical signals to enter in trades and lets the human sleep in a hammock on a beach while he "makes" money.
With a push of a button, the robot runs continuously, making trades signaled by mathematical algorithms applied to past price history. In order words, they run automated mechanical systems, whether or not the user is in front of the computer or not.
The problem is that robots and their pre-wired thinking do not compensate for ever-changing market conditions.
Market behavior is dynamic, constantly moving in an infinite variation of three movements: up, down, or sideways.
Most robots are not programmed for all environments, or to recognize a change in the trading environment. As a result, losses occur and they can be huge if not closely watched or managed.
Now, the scam isn't the robot itself but how they are marketed. Scammers will often try to sell these robots and automated systems as the "holy grail" of trading, promising you'll retire sometime next week. And they sell them at "human affordable" prices ranging from $20 to $5000.
OMG!! Only $20?? For the chance to make ridiculous money??? That sounds like a bargain!
All right, stop. Collaborate and listen.
If the creator is making big bucks with the system, why would he/she try to sell it and share the profit?
And why for only $20?! You can barely get a decent meal at Chick-fil-A for you and your sweetums with $20!
The only real profit for these fraudulent people is the revenue generated from the sales of their forex "R2-D2s."
The scammer will try to entice you with historical data and back-testing logs.
DOUBLE OMG!! It's back-tested!! It must work!!! And it's only $20!! That's less than a PS3 game!
All right, stop. Collaborate and listen. Again.
Sure, it might look highly profitable. However, in the forex market, there is no such thing as a consistent market. Conditions are changing all the time. The past has little effect on the future in a changing market.
We don't know for certain that what happened in past will happen again in the future. There are too many variables to consider. Plus, you don't know if these scammers are making up the results anyways. They could just input random numbers into an excel file as most people wouldn't bother checking if they are accurate or not. 
Our advice?
Stay away from automated systems and robots until you become a master trader AND programmer.
Beginners know nothing about trading or how forex markets behave, so they will not understand how the robot works, what environments they are best suited for, or how to tweak and adjust the system. It is best to actually learn how to trade consistently before you make the decision to let a program do it for you.
Think about it this way: Would you give a total stranger (with no brain to boot!) your hard earned money to invest without having a clue on what he/she was doing? Didn't think so!
Robots can be a great tool, but let's be real -there's no perfect "one" that will work in all environments, all the time. Shoot, even the quant funds and algorithmic traders on Wall Street can lose money, and they have PhD mathematicians and financial engineers creating their programs! 

 Signal Services

Signal services do everything a robot does except the actual execution of trade entries. Besides possibly using an automated program, a "professional" trader may generate trading signals (for a fee, of course) for clients to act upon.
However, you may be paying for a signal in which you do not know the causes for and how the "professional" came up with it.
You have no idea what the basis for the trade is, just that the "professional" is telling you that it's a good time to buy or sell.
In the end, you are relying on the analysis of a third-party sources that is not your own.
In a typical signal service, the programmer creates a set of technical indicators and rules and the program runs to those specifications.
If price action satisfies the conditions of the signal service, then an alert or pop-up will show up for the user to react.
It is ultimately up to the user to decide whether or not to take the signal and trade it.
While this may sound more beneficial as you have a choice on whether or not to take a trade, the signal service is still programmed to a constant set of rules.
Like we mentioned earlier, the forex market is in a constant state of change. While the signal service might have been profitable in the past, there is no guarantee that it will be profitable in the future.
One other thing to think about is if the signal service is so profitable, why would the creator want to share the profit? 
Like robots, the scam isn't the service itself, but the way it's marketed.
You may see ads from scammers that promise you'll make a bajillion dollars with their signals.
Many traders will look at the a and think, "A bajillion dollars!? I could do anything I want with a bajillion dollar!"
Now stop. Think about it.
If that were true, they most likely wouldn't be running a signals business. Instead, they would focus on trading and make a bajilion dollars for themselves.
Some Brokers are Scammers Too!

Did you know that even certain brokers were scammers?
Believe it or not, there are some brokers who "cheat" their clients.
One way they do so is by manipulating bid/ask spreads.
Normal spreads between brokers would be around 2-3 pips but scammers would have spreads around 7-8 pips.
Seven pips might not seem like a lot, but it does add up.
Imagine each time a client trades, he has to pay a spread of 7 pips. Imagine if he takes a just a few trades per day.
Multiply that with hundreds of other clueless clients, you'd be rakin' in the dough!
Another way is by stop-hunting.
Remember, brokers know where clients place their stops.
Sometimes, they'll make a run for those stops, causing their clients' positions to close out.
Fortunately, many, but not all, broker shenanigans are considered old school.
Thanks to new rules from regulatory agencies such as the Commodities Futures Trading Commission and the National Futures Association, these old scams have been cracked down upon.
You should choose a broker that is registered with a regulatory agency.
In the U.S., check out brokers registered as a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) with the CFTC and a NFA member. Be wary of those brokers that are not regulated by the CFTC and the NFA.
You should know that the CFTC and NFA were made to protect the public against fraud, manipulation, and abusive trade practices.
Be careful, it's often difficult to distinguish between regulated and unregulated forex brokers!
According to the NFA Web site, there are about 2,000 retail forex brokerages and solicitors of accounts that are not subject to the new rules.
Out of that 2,000, the NFA has only 24 registered member firms! If you do the math, that's just 1% of all forex brokerages!
You can verify CFTC registration and NFA membership status of a particular broker and check their disciplinary history by phoning NFA at (800) 621-3570 or by checking the broker/firm information section (BASIC) at the NFA's website!
If you're trading forex outside the US, you're in luck! Other countries have regulatory agencies as well and protect individuals as well. More will be mentioned about them later.
If the broker in question is not registered or regulated by any national agency, then DO NOT deposit your money with them. We warned ya, so don't complain to us if you don't get your money back!
Stay away from non-regulated firms!
The NFA is stepping up their efforts in educating investors about retail forex trading. They've created a brochure fit for a Pulitzer Prize called, "Trading in the Retail Off-Exchange Foreign Currency Market".
The NFA recommends you read it before taking the forex plunge.
Once you have verified the membership of a broker to a regulatory agency, it's time to do real research.
A good place to start is at our Broker Guide. We help you break down brokers so that you can easily compare among them.
Also, don't be shy to also ask around in our forex forums. It doesn't hurt to get personal opinions. 

Regulatory Agencies

Commodities Futures Trade Commission (CFTC)

In the United States, we like to call the CFTC... Big Brother.
This agency was developed in 1974 to protect individuals (average cool dudes like you and the FX-Men) in futures and commodities trading. Since futures include the currency market, the CFTC "naturally" protects forex traders as well.


From 1974 to the present, the CFTC has undergone many changes in hopes of improving trading conditions and creating a level playing field for everyone. The CFTC is also responsible for publishing the Commitments of Traders Report (COT) every Tuesday.
Five commissioners appointed by the President, the offices of the Chairman, and the agency's operating units make up the Commission. The Commission has 3 offices along with HQ located in Washington, D.C. - Chicago, Kansas City, New York.
Futures exchanges are also located in these cities. So if you have a problem with them, you can make your way over there and bust out your uzis and spray them. Just kidding. Don't do that - they're the good guys. They're here to help you.
Imagine if there was no organization out there to protect you. There would be a lot more scammers, and brokers would cheat their clients in a heartbeat. The CFTC provides order in a market that would otherwise be chaotic.
The mission of the CFTC is to protect market users and the public from fraud, manipulation, and abusive practices related to the sale of commodity and financial futures and options. In the "unregulated" forex market, this regulatory agency will help you determine if a forex company is reliable or trustworthy.
The CFTC's Website can be found here:

http://www.cftc.gov/index.htm
If you need to file a complaint or report suspicious activities:
http://www.cftc.gov/customerprotection/redressandreparations/index.htm

National Futures Association (NFA)

The NFA is an industry-wide self-propelling organization created in 1982 that regulates the futures market in the United States. By self-propelling, we mean that the NFA collects dues in order to sustain itself without having to rely on taxpayers' dollars.
If the CFTC is Big Brother, then we like to call the NFA....Little Big Brother. NFA's activities are overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the government agency responsible for regulating the U.S. futures industry.
The NFA's mission is to:
  • Ensure futures industry integrity
  • Protect market participants
  • Enforce NFA members to meet their regulatory responsibilities
Virtually every firm or individual who conducts futures or options on futures business with the public must be registered with the CFTC and a Member of NFA. NFA performs the registration process on behalf of the CFTC.
NFA Member categories include: Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA), Commodity Pool Operators (CPO), Futures Commission Merchants (FCM) and Introducing Brokers (IB). 
In order to conduct any business in the futures market, you would have to be a member of the NFA. To be a member of the NFA, an organization would have to pass a screening done by the NFA and comply with NFA standards and regulations.
These rules and regulations provide market integrity and a level playing field for all, and not just for investors.
Over time, they have been making significant progress. In order to resolve futures-related issues, the NFA began an arbitration method in 1983. In 1991, a mediation program was developed as a faster way to resolve disputes.
In late 2001, the NFA started to accept claims online. Members could also start registering online in 2002.
In 2004, the NFA started to submit digital images of fingerprint cards to the FBI enabling quicker background checks and shorter registration times. What an active organization! This goes to show that they keep up with the times. Who knows, they might just make their own iPad app. Ha!
Along with the CFTC, the NFA provides investors and individuals with security and protection from fraud and scams.
The NFA's website can be found at http://www.nfa.futures.org/index.asp.

Foreign Regulatory Agencies


UK Financial Services Authority

If you live in the U.K., the Financial Services Authority (FSA) is for you! Formed in 2001 by the Financial Services and Markets Act of 2000, this non-governmental body aims to reduce financial crime and protect consumers through the regulation of financial services and firms in the U.K.
HM (His/Her Majesty's) Treasury decides what the FSA should regulate, but the FSA decides how to regulate. Like the NFA and CFTC, the FSA also has a database of members. These members are subject to the FSA's rules and regulations. Through membership fees, the FSA funds itself like an Energizer bunny.
FSA's website: http://www.fsa.gov.uk/

Finanstilsynet

The Danish FSA was formed in January 1988 and was charged with supervising financial activities in Denmark. Members of the FSA are monitored in attempt to protect investors and prevent market abuse.
Finanstilsynet's website: http://www.dfsa.dk/en.aspx

Swiss Federal Department of Finance

The Federal Department of Finance or FDF was formed in 1848. While the FDF is the overseer of financials in Switzerland, it is the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority or FINMA that regulates the banks, securities dealers, and stock exchanges. FINMA acts like the big brother in Switzerland and does pretty much the same as the other regulatory agencies.
FDF's website: http://www.efd.admin.ch/index.html?lang=en
FINMA's website: http://www.finma.ch/e/Pages/default.aspx

Association Romande des intermediares financiers

This organization is similar to FINMA in that they are both from Switzerland, but this body is based on the French speaking part of Switzerland. ARIF was formed in 1999. It too acts as a regulatory agency with members abiding by certain rules and laws.
ARIF's website: http://www.arif.ch/en/index.htm

Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) was formed in May 1989 due to ineffective efforts of two regulating bodies. With a combined single organization, the SFC took charge. It monitors all futures and securities-related activities in Hong Kong.

Australian Securities and Investments Commission

Founded in 1991, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) acts as a corporate regulator in Australia. ASIC regulates companies, financial markets, and financial service organizations as well as insurance, and credit. The organization aims to maintain fairness in the market environment.
ASIC's website: http://www.asic.gov.au/asic/asic.nsf

Scam FAQ

So what have we learned?
Scams ARE real!
Yes! Really bad people are out there trying to make a dishonest living. However, unlucky for them, you are smart! You know that the only way to succeed in currency trading is to learn from square one and build trading experience!
Now say this three times out loud:
"I will not fall for no-risk robots! I will not succumb to guaranteed returns! Lastly, I will not be lazy and let someone else trade me lucky charms *cough* I mean my money for me!"
Now that we have that over with, let's close out with some questions our viewers have asked us countless times!

Q: How can I protect myself from fraud?

A: Easy. Be educated. Be smart. Know what a scam looks like. Anything that seems too good to be true usually really isn't true.

Q: How do I choose a forex broker?

A: First and foremost, make sure the broker is regulated by a national agency. Research, research, and do more research! And for reference use our Broker Guide!

Q: Can forex managers be trusted?

A: If your forex manager is yourself, yes! If not, I'd exercise extreme caution. But if you're persistent and want to find out the hard way, do a background check and make sure the person has proper licenses and certifications.

Q: Are forex robots profitable?

A: Is the moon ever blue? Forex robots are never profitable because their preprogrammed technical indicators cannot adjust for the ever-changing market conditions.

Q: Who do I contact if I suspect fraud?

A: There are specific organizations depending on your location.
United States:
CFTC: http://www.cftc.gov/ConsumerProtection/RedressReparations/index.htm
NFA: http://www.nfa.futures.org/basicnet/Complaint.aspx
United Kingdom:
ActionFraud: http://www.actionfraud.org.uk/report_fraud
Australia:
Scamwatch: http://www.scamwatch.gov.au/content/index.phtml/tag/reportascam#h2_10

Q: Where can I capture me a leprechaun?

A: Look for a unicorn. Where you'll find a unicorn, you'll find a leprechaun!


So remember, forex scams DO exist. Be wary of them and hold onto your hard earned money. The good news is that there ARE legitimate forex companies out there. Make sure you do thorough research on a company if you are thinking about giving them a shot.
Ask other traders on the forums if they've had experiences with them. There is a wealth of information on the Internet so do your homework, use your head, and you'll be just fine.

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